RAPPORT - NORSKE ØKONOMISKE INTERESSER. HVOR ER DE?
Menon Economics have published a report on the status of Norwegian exports, and how the Norwegian export interests are distributed between countries and continents. The report finds that there has been a considerable increase in Norwegian exports between 2020 and 2021. This growth continues into 2022.
From the first half of 2020 to the first half of 2022, exports from the Norwegian mainland increased by 46 % according to Statistisk Sentralbyrå. The oil- and gas-sector had an export growth of almost 400 % in the same period.
A lot of the growth is price driven. The stark increase in global prices, particularly the growth in energy prices following the recent events in Ukraine, plays a large role in explaining the growth in exports. Numbers from the report shows that the volume of exports have remained stable since 2019, and with the anticipated price decrease in the upcoming years there is reason to believe the growth will recede somewhat.
The report finds that 79 % of Norwegian exports go to Europe. If one excludes the oil- and gas-sector, the numbers are 63 %. Europe is expected to have a lower growth and obtain a smaller percentage of the world growth in the upcoming years, to the advantage of Asia in particular. This means that there are good opportunities for Norway to increase exports to Asian countries.
However, the report finds that there are more hinders in exporting to developing countries, than to OECD countries. Difficulties in obtaining information, regulations and protectionist measures pose challenges when trading with developing countries. When it comes to obtaining information, the report points out the other Nordic countries have adjusted by having the embassies work more like scouts for opportunities. Some governments have also taken on a more “whole-of-the-government” approach to export promotion, contrary to when the responsibility rests solely on the Department of Foreign Affairs.
Protectionist measures have had a striking increase since 2019. The report highlights that the export financing which is within the OECD regulations has fallen in the period between 2018 and 2020, while the export financing measures which are outside regulation have remained stable and increased.
The main reasonings for introducing protectionist measures are either a wish to decarbonize the economy, to build up a clean energy supply domestically, or to reduce the dependency of global trading. The Covid-19 pandemic revealed vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the global supply chains, but the report finds that the protectionist trend is there even when looking away from the effects of the pandemic. The report highlights that to expand Norwegian exports into Asia and other developing regions there will be a larger need for assistance from the foreign services.
Norwegian Economic Interests in the USA:
mbers are for 2020.
Source: Menon (2022). MENON-PUBLIKASJON NR. 87/2022: Norske økonomiske interesser. Hvor er de?