On Thursday, June 20, 2024, trainee Margrethe attended another super interesting event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) titled "Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy: A Conversation with HPSCI Chairman Mike Turner." This event, hosted by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) and the Aerospace Security Project (ASP), brought together top voices on the matter for nuclear threats. Congressman Michael Turner, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) and senior member of the House Armed Services Committee (HASC), talked with Kari A. Bingen, ASP director, after introductory remarks by Dr. Heather Williams, PONI director.
The Strategic Importance of Nuclear Weapons in U.S. Foreign Policy
Chairman Turner started by addressing the pressing issue of the Russian nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) threat. He explained why it is so important for the western wold today to understand the strategic landscape, threat and technology trends, nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and arms control. In 2023 Turner worked on a bipartisan strategic posture commission, which warned about the rapidly evolving strategic challenges.
Chairman Turner's speech painted a stark picture of a potential "Day Zero," the day the Space Age effectively ends due to Russia's nuclear ASAT capabilities. He referred to General Saltzman, Chief of Staff at the United States Space Force, who described this potential launch as a catastrophic event that would render low Earth orbit unusable, devastating global satellite infrastructure. This would disrupt everything from agriculture, medicine, and communications to international security and maritime navigation.
The United Nations Outer Space Treaty
An important topic of the discussion was the United Nations Outer Space Treaty, which entered into force in 1967 and was signed by the Russian Federation, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons in orbit or on celestial bodies and aims to ensure that space remains a domain for peaceful use. However, Turner's revelations about Russia's developments indicate a grave violation of this treaty, raising global security concerns. Turner’s call to action today was for the U.S. and its NATO allies to enforce the UN’s Outer Space Treaty and lean on Russia to follow.
Turner poignantly stated that Vladimir Putin is “holding the world hostage” with his space-based missile threats and the geopolitical maneuvering at play. The room felt the gravity of the situation when Turner and Bingen called it the “Cuban missile crisis of space”. The failure to address this emerging threat could lead to an irreversible security crisis.
A critical aspect of the discussion was the role of NATO allies in nuclear deterrence. While it was hoped that NATO allies not becoming nuclear states would act as a deterrent, adversaries like China and Russia have nonetheless ramped up their nuclear arsenals. This escalation necessitates a robust response from the United States and its allies to maintain strategic balance and deterrence.
A Call for Action and Optimism
Despite the sobering nature of the threats discussed, Turner ended on an optimistic note. He emphasized that while adversaries like Russia and China have a "wish list" of capabilities, the United States and its NATO allies have a "to-do list." This implies a proactive and actionable approach to addressing these threats, leveraging the significant economic, technological, and military advantages that the U.S. and its allies possess.
Today it becomes even more clear the critical need for urgent action to address emerging nuclear threats and maintain global stability. Talks and events like these ones are important to educate policymakers and the public alike so that we can understand the gravity of these issues and ramp up our efforts that address national and international security. Especially, the U.S. and its allies must act decisively to ensure that space remains a domain of peace and progress, and not a new frontier for conflict.
For more details and to watch the event recording, visit the CSIS event page.
Picture: CSIS
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